Expansión a largo plazo de la capacidad de Generación: caso del mercado acoplado Perú-Chile

Abstract

The international trend and in the South American region towards the formation of a single electricity market through the progressive interconnection of markets of neighboring countries is a current challenge since the problems of the different energy policies adopted in the countries must be identified, understood and solved. However, each country has unilaterally applied differentiated energy development and generation sufficiency policies that have influenced the behaviour of its internal electricity market. This article investigates the effects of the application of these unilateral and isolated policies of energy development, fuel subsidies, the variation in the price of fuels, the sufficiency of supply of generation capacity based on renewable sources, non-renewable and new technology, as well as the expansion of the interconnector. For this, a model that makes use of the system dynamics theory has been structured and the case study of the Peru - Chile interconnection was analysed, it was concluded that the difference that exists in the availability of energy resources NR (natural gas) between Peru and Chile has influenced the difference between the marginal costs of their electrical systems (CMg9, that in all simulated scenarios most of the energy exchange is carried out from Peru to Chile, representing between 98% and 79% of the total exchanges throughout the period. Also, in the case of the absence of the southern Peruvian gas pipeline, the sufficiency of electrical capacity is reached in Peru, the existence of energy complementarity between both countries is not observed in the short or medium term. Countries may have a 75% RER electricity supply matrix by 2050.